My Take on the 1998 Academy Award Nominations…

Okay, so I was way off the mark this time around. In hindsight and in light of everything that went on during the past year, it should have been obvious that Hollywood would shower its highest honors on a movie about a likable, world-famous, talented married guy who decides to have a little fling. But the real question is: does this represent a triumph of skill and charm or just effective campaign financing? (Boldface indicates actual winners.)

Category

Most Likely to Win

Most Deserving to Win

Actual Winners I Missed

Best Picture

Saving Private Ryan

Life Is Beautiful

Shakespeare in Love

Best Actor

Edward Norton (American History X)

Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters)

Roberto Benigni (Life Is Beautiful)

Best Actress

Emily Watson (Hilary and Jackie)

Fernanda Montenegro (Central Station)

Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in Love)

Best Supporting Actor

Ed Harris (The Truman Show)

James Coburn (Affliction)

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates (Primary Colors)

Rachel Griffiths (Hilary and Jackie)

Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love)

Best Director

Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan)

Steven Spielberg (Saving Private Ryan)

Original Screenplay

Robert Rodat (Saving Private Ryan)

Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard (Shakespeare in Love)

Adapted Screenplay

Terrence Malick (The Thin Red Line)

Scott Frank (Out of Sight)

Bill Condon (Gods and Monsters)

Foreign Film

Central Station (Brazil)

Life Is Beautiful (Italy)

My Scores

1 accurate prediction

3 cases of sanity

5 total misses